PFR Hall of Fame Monitor
Similar to Baseball-Reference's tracking of various Hall of Fame predictor statistics such as Bill James' Hall of Fame Monitor and Jay Jaffe's WAR Score System, as well as Basketball Reference's Hall of Fame Probability formula, Pro Football Reference has developed a Hall of Fame Monitor formula to help people get a quick idea of the strength of a player's candidacy for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Here's a link to the quarterback HOF Monitor page, which also includes links to the other positions. Links to these tables also appear under the Leaderboards and Awards section of player pages. This is calculated on the site for all players who debuted in 1955 or later and have played at least 50 regular season games.
The full methodology is listed below, but to summarize, the base formula uses weighted Approximate Value (which is 100% of the player's peak year, 95% of their second-best year, 90% of their third-best, and so on) as a starting point. Bonuses are added for Pro Football Hall of Fame All-Decade selections, MVP awards, Defensive Player of the Year awards, first-team AP All-Pro selections, Super Bowls/titles, and Pro Bowls, in descending weights.
In addition, bonuses are added if a player has earned first-team All-Pro in over 33% of their seasons. This reflects the reputation boost afforded to players who led the league in short careers like Gale Sayers, Terrell Davis and Tony Boselli. For players not yet inducted, small bonuses are also added for semi-finalist and finalist appearances on previous HOF ballots, since that indicates that they've already been seriously considered.
On top of the base formula, there are statistical bonuses given depending on the position. For quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends there are different thresholds depending on the era they played in so as to narrow the gap between the depressed passing stats before 1980 and the explosion after that.
Similar to JAWS, a score of 100 is around the average modern-era HOF inductee for each position. All eligible players with a score over 120 got into the Hall of Fame fairly quickly, save for a few exceptions such as Willie Wood. A score of 150 would be a first ballot lock (sole exception thus far is Alan Page who had to wait a year). A score of 80 or above means they're a good candidate to eventually get in, or they’re the highest-profile borderline candidates. The absolute lowest score for HOF inductees would be 40, although most of these lower scoring Hall of Famers are senior committee selections that may have cases beyond their statistical output.
We want to stress that this is especially meant to judge a player's chances of getting into the Pro Football Hall of Fame and does not translate directly to "greatest of all time" debates. Many analysts agree that championships won reveal little to nothing about a player's individual skill, but it's certainly a factor that has historically been taken into consideration by Hall of Fame voters.
Full HOF Monitor Methodology
Base
Pro Football Hall of Fame All-Decade Selections) * 25
Value of All-Decade Selections:
- 1st-team Offense/Defense = 1.0
- 1st-team Special Teams = 0.5
- 2nd-team Offense/Defense = 0.4
- 2nd-team Special Teams = 0.2
- Offense/Defense without 1st/2nd team designation = 0.7
- Special Teams without 1st/2nd team designation = 0.35
+ (Most Valuable Player + Defensive Player of the Year) * 12.5
+ (1st-team Associated Press All-Pro selections) * 2.5
+ (Championships) * 2
Exception: Quarterbacks have championships multiplied by 2.5, but only counted if they started the Super Bowl/championship game
+ (Pro Bowls) * 1.5
+ (Weighted Approximate Value) * 0.5
Weighted AV = 100% of the Approximate Value of his best season, 95% of the AV of his next-best season, 90% of the AV of his third-best season, and so on
For inactive players, if a player’s 1st-team AP All-Pro selections is greater than 33% of the seasons they played in the league, add a 25-point bonus.
If a player has not yet been inducted, add 1 point for each finalist appearance and 0.5 points for each semifinalist appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot.
Apply a 0.75 point penalty for each year played in the AFL.
Position-Specific Additions
Quarterbacks
+ (Super Bowl losses) * 1.25
If player debuted in 1980 or later:
+ (Passing yards over 40,000) * 0.00075
+ (Passing TDs over 250) * 0.0075
If player debuted before 1980:
+ (Passing yards over 25,000) * 0.00075
+ (Passing TDs over 175) * 0.0075
7.5 point penalty if no championships won
Running Backs
+ (Rushing yards over 10,000) * 0.005
+ (Rushing TDs over 70) * 0.05
2.5 point penalty if no championships won
Wide Receivers
If player debuted in 1980 or later:
+ (Receiving yards over 10,000) * 0.0075
+ (Receiving TDs over 65) * 0.075
If player debuted before 1980:
+ (Receiving yards over 7,000) * 0.0075
+ (Receiving TDs over 50) * 0.075
2.5 point penalty if no championships won
Tight Ends
If player debuted in 1980 or later:
+ (Receiving yards over 7,500) * 0.0075
+ (Receiving TDs over 50) * 0.075
If player debuted before 1980:
+ (Receiving yards over 3,500) * 0.0075
+ (Receiving TDs over 35) * 0.075
Offensive Tackles and Guards
2.5 point penalty if no championships won
Centers
No additional variables
Defensive Ends
+ (Sacks over 125) * 0.25
2.5 point penalty if no championships won
Defensive Tackles
+ (Sacks over 100) * 0.25
2.5 point penalty if no championships won
Inside Linebackers
+ (Interceptions over 25) * 0.5
5 point penalty if no championships won
Outside Linebackers
+ (Sacks over 100) * 0.25
2.5 point penalty if no championships won
Defensive Backs
+ (Interceptions over 50) * 0.5
2.5 point penalty if no championships won
Kickers
If player debuted in 1980 or later:
+ (Field goals made over 450) * 0.25
If player debuted before 1980:
+ (Field goals made over 300) * 0.25
Punters
5 point penalty if no championships won
Version History
Version 1.0: The Hall of Fame Monitor was officially released in mid-December 2019 in time to analyze the Centennial Class of 2020.
Version 1.1: The Monitor underwent some minor tweaks in February 2020, taking into account feedback received from trusted sources following the official release of the Monitor, as well as conclusions drawn from the eventual selections of the 2020 HOF class.
Version 1.2: In May 2020, the weight for All-Decade teams without 1st/2nd team designations was tweaked to accommodate the players selected to the 1960s and 2010s teams.
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